Monday, January 28, 2008

Potash Corp (POT)


2 green arrows and a ghost green.
In a good industry with good fundamentals.

This has been in an up channel for 11 months with only a few quick excursions below the channel.

It has just gotten past its earnings and has gotten back into the channel.
Yesterday’s close was at a support of 132.5
Today it opened at the support and closed higher.

Now the question is… Do I buy a Vertical Call Spread or sell a Vertical Put Spread?

Vertical Call Spread (Bullish)
Buy Mar 140 Call @ 12.45
Sell Mar 145 Call @ 10.15
Debit=2.30

Vertical Put Spread (Bullish)
Sell Feb 130 Put @ 4.30
Buy Feb 125 Put @ 3.15
Credit=1.15

In both, I’m bullish since it is a long up-trending stock even with the way the market has been swinging bearish lately.
Since both are assuming a similar movement, I am going to place an order for the debit spread. There is more potential profit (2.70 vs. 1.15) for less money at risk (2.30 vs. 3.85)



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