Apple (AAPL)

Looking again to do a longer term option trade. And again looking at one of the present day “blue chip” stocks, Apple.

Above chart shows AAPL on a 5 year up trend. Up and down short-term trends are marked by green & red blocks.
It looks like each time the stock has bounced off the 5 yr trendline, it has made substantial gains in 6 months or less. When it had strong down trend, it made up the loss in less than a year.
However, in recent weeks, the stock has fallen thru the 5-year trendline.

I see support at 120 & 117.

Although none of the recently announced new products, have the impact of the iPhone, I cannot see where this company would go into a long term down trend.

I am going to look into buying some long–term (Jan09 calls)
Jan09 150 Call, Mark=14.67
Will hold off on this a bit longer.

And some short-term (bull put spreads)
Feb08 115/110 Put spread @ 0.86 credit
~75% probablity, ~17% ROI
Below both support lines

Feb08 110/105 Put spread @ 0.41 credit
~85% probablity, ~8% ROI
Lower ROI but less than 2 weeks AND lower risk.

I’m going to go with the lower risk / lower ROI one this time.
Put order in for Feb08 110/105 Put spread @ 0.45 credit